Thursday, July 9, 2015

Tehran and Washington .. start dancing in the light of the menorah!

Tehran and Washington .. start dancing in the light of the menorah!

Legitimate concerns

Gulf states do not mind at all in any effort aimed at improving relations between Washington and Tehran, Stability and peace in the Gulf region is the stability in the Middle East and the world as a whole. The settlement of the nuclear crisis through Iran in response to international demands to subject its nuclear program to inspection and control removes one of the biggest emitters of the Gulf of concern Hilolth without the occurrence of a regional war between Iran and Israel and the West toppled the economic security of the Gulf and its resources.
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif
Several days ago I was watching American film (Argo Argo), a film tries to portray what took place behind the scenes of the American hostage crisis in Iran in 1979 when Iranian activists US embassy in Tehran came after the Khomeini revolution and held fifty-two US employees, but six of them managed to escape and resorting to the home of the Canadian ambassador. The film is a true story adapted from former US intelligence agent certificate Tony Mendez of writing master Disguise: My life secret CIA (The Master of Disguise: My Secret Life in the CIA) as well as from Joshua Bjarman Joshuah Bearman article "The Great Escape" The Great Escape.
Which by 2007 in Wired magazine, citing documents the CIA of America, which declassified. Although the story of American hostages famous and historically documented crisis in all its details except that the film was able to mold listed in the exciting and interesting literal high skill made him a candidate for the Oscars.
This film was dating one of the chapters of conflict and confrontation between Washington and Tehran, which began hostage crisis, passing through the first Gulf war (the Iran - Iraq) war and the end of the crisis of the Iranian nuclear file. All this in the context of the conflict in the Gulf region and to dominate the Middle East. Did not contribute to change leadership in the two countries, over three decades, to bring about any shift in this track, which contributed to instability in the Middle East and the world as a whole . But the recent events the beginning of the arrival of President Hassan Rowhani, a reformist and moderate to the presidency in Iran and the adoption language conciliatory with the West through to meet US Secretary of State John Kerry counterpart Iranian Mohammad Javad Zarif in New York on the sidelines of the General Assembly of the United Nations and also through contacting the historical and who is the first Since the Iranian revolution in 1979 between the two presidents. And the end of the agreement Geneva 2 nuclear program, which was reached in Geneva on November 4, 3102 between Iran and the six or five states +1 on Iran's nuclear program after three weeks of negotiations, raised several questions about the fact that diplomatic moves between Washington and Tehran and what are the implications for the Gulf States?

America and the trend towards the Pacific Ocean

Is arguably the most important reasons for the US rapprochement with Iran lies at several points, the most important pursuit of the American administration to shift their focus towards the Asia-Pacific region, America since the arrival of Obama to power has pursued a new strategy and that shift attention from the Middle East and focus on the Asia-Pacific region in an attempt to lay siege to the rise of China. Chinese economy as many of the reports will be the largest economy in the world, which could threaten US sovereignty on the international economy. While it was not the Chinese economy more than 6% of the size of the US economy in the early sixties now exceed 50% of the size of the economy in the United States, which may represent a significant threat in the nature of the international system and the signal to move a multi-polar world as Aroy senior American analysts such as Fred Zakaria. In early 2012, Obama announced his new strategy and that the transfer of American attention to the Asia-Pacific region. Which was confirmed by the previous US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in «Foreign Policy» magazine that will determine the future of US policy in Asia and the Pacific, not only in Afghanistan and Iraq. It is also confirmed by former US Secretary of Defense, Leon Panetta that the United States prepares by 2020 to re-deploy more than 60 percent of its fleet of maritime war in the Asia-Pacific region. Obama's tour comes to Asia immediately after his re-election to each of Thailand, Cambodia, Myanmar indicator of this strategic direction with the Obama administration.

An end to US involvement in the Middle East

Focus on the Asia-Pacific region, the consequent end to the US involvement in the Middle East and not to enter into any new wars. This was evident in many of the issues starting from the US withdrawal from Iraq, through Obama's announcement by the gradual withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2014 and transfer the leadership of military operations to Afghan security forces as well as pursue a diplomatic approach and soft power with regard to the Iranian nuclear file. And the end of the Syrian file that Obama pursued it since the beginning of the Syrian revolution principle soft-faire through pressure on the Syrian regime and to provide support to the opposition without direct military involvement. Accordingly, for the settlement of the Middle East You had to be to deal with Iran, Valtmdd Iranian penetration in many of these files either directly as is happening in Syria, especially since the revolution or in Lebanon through Hezbollah or Iraq, especially after the 2003 war, or indirectly through the spy networks in Yemen and the Gulf states.
Gulf states do not mind at all in any effort aimed at improving relations between Washington and Tehran, Stability and peace in the Gulf region is the stability in the Middle East

Return to negotiate a document Tehran in 2003

And it was on the United States to return to the negotiation of a new close Tehran 2003. According to Trita Parsi, head of the National Iranian American Council (NIAC) in his recent book "One roll of the dice Single Role of the Dice says that after less than a month on the occupation of Baghdad 2003, Tehran offered to resolve their differences with the United States through the Swiss ambassador in Tehran at the time, Tim Juldeman, which is sponsoring its embassy American interests, pledging to halt support for both Hamas and Islamic Jihad and the Palestinian press them to stop their attacks on Israel by the support to stop arming Hezbollah Hezbollah in Lebanon and the pressure on him to disarm and turn it into flour international pure and support the political party and the approval of the inspection Iran's nuclear program as well as to agree to the Arab League which calls for peace with Tel Aviv exchange for a full Israeli withdrawal to the borders of pre-1967 in exchange for the recognition of Iran as an actor regional initiative in the region and lift it from the list of the axis of evil. But the Bush administration rejected the Iranian offer and angrily scolded Swiss diplomat who conveyed the Iranian offer to them. And therefore I think that the Obama administration wanted to return to negotiate a document Tehran in 2003, taking into account regional and high changes.

The financial crisis and the changing course of the relationship

Obama administration faces a situation internally very complex, due to the financial crisis that began in 2008, which is considered the worst of its kind since the Great Depression time of year 1929. The aftershocks of the financial crisis resulting from the recent controversy who took place between the Obama administration and Congress on the budget in October 2013 almost led to the collapse of the US economy, and lose political influence at the international level as the view of many analysts. That this crisis experienced by America and that the federal government almost crippling, paid to improve its relations with Iran to meet its fiscal deficit. It has been estimated Center (IHS Global Insight) Universal specialist study and monitor the performance of global economies that the United States has lost $ 12.5 million every hour since the beginning of the crisis, that is, 300 million dollars a day, and that since the first of October 2013, since the US federal government closed some offices and halted non-core activities, and returned 800 thousand federal employees to their homes. In addition, it was announced Foreign Assets Control of the US Department of Treasury, responsible for the application of trade and economic sanctions imposed on Iran and Syria, that he can not do all the tasks given to reducing the number of working in the office because of the financing of the US government deficit after Congress refused to pass the new financial year's budget office.

Tehran and the exchange of elites with Washington

As for the desire of Tehran convergence of Washington lies in two things Johrien, first: the desire to decipher the political isolation and overcome the crisis of economic sanctions, Sanctions imposed on Iran several years ago paid for rapprochement with the United States, as the skip economic sanctions crisis and dismantling of the isolation of the economy are needed Iranian. Iran, with an estimated losses due to the embargo imposed on its oil exports by about 40-50 billion dollars annually. According to the International Energy Agency shows that Western sanctions imposed on Iran's oil sector cost Iran $ 40 billion in oil export revenues in 2012. In addition retreat Iranian currency (Iranian rial) against the dollar. It is 13 000 riyals to the dollar in 2011 to 34 000 riyals to the dollar in 2012 to 40 000 to the dollar in 2013, which means the loss of the riyal more than 75% of its value against the dollar. As well as the high rate of inflation resulting from the banking and oil sanctions imposed on Iran. According to a World Bank report Iran ranked third in the high rate of inflation during 2012 after Belarus or Belarus and Syria by 27.3%. The inflation rate in Iran in 2011 has reached 20.6% and 10.1% in 2010 while in 2009 this ratio was 13.5% in 2008 and inflation to 25.5%. Iran is wanted rapprochement with America to reduce the political tension as a result of economic sanctions, which perhaps may combine to increase the likelihood of the outbreak of the domestic situation to be re-scenario in 2009 demonstrations (the Green Movement or the 2012 event so-called protests Tehran grand bazaar, which was immediately after the collapse of the Iranian rial) .
Iranian rial has more than 75% of its value against the dollar as a result of sanctions imposed on Iran's economy over four years
The second thing is the return of the role of the reformist political scene, the reformist Valtiar in Iran during the eight years ago, that is, with the end of the rule of reformist president Mohammad Khatami has undergone the process of exclusion and marginalization of systematic and deliberate from the political scene and therefore was drying political Mnabahm in order to confirm the continuation of conservative political decision dominance both in Parliament or in the presidency or in the rest of the other major state agencies. We still hear from time to time about the closure of organizations that provide support to the reformers, activists and restrictions on those who followed them, in addition to preventing all postings of versions. Both candidates are still Alasalahian Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi, who lost the elections in 2009 under house arrest for more than two years.

Gulf and chime on the impact of Hymns obsessing

Gulf states do not mind at all in any effort aimed at improving relations between Washington and Tehran, Stability and peace in the Gulf region is the stability in the Middle East and the world as a whole. The settlement of the nuclear crisis through Iran in response to international demands to subject its nuclear program to inspection and control removes one of the biggest emitters of the Gulf of concern Hilolth without the occurrence of a regional war between Iran and Israel and the West toppled the economic security of the Gulf and its resources. Especially that the Arab Gulf states most affected in the event of such a war geographic proximity of Iran's nuclear sites. Fmvaal Bushehr, for example, is only 240 kilometers from the shores of the Arabian Gulf, which may cause fears of a radiation leak in the event of target, which could lead to disastrous results. In addition, Iran's possession of nuclear weapons would upset the balance of power to the disadvantage of the Gulf countries, which could spark a nuclear arms race in the region through the principle of reciprocity, especially the Gulf states. The lifting of international economic sanctions on Iran could boost economic cooperation with the Gulf countries in all fields; which will benefit everyone. And it hopes that the Gulf states in the last progress contributes to the agreement signed in Geneva between Iran and the six countries or 5 +1 in achieving security and stability in the region as it crossed the Gulf states in the Gulf Cooperation Council summit held in Kuwait last. But this welcome tainted by a lot of uncertainty due not the agreement itself, but how it was reached through this agreement.
What disturbs the Arab Gulf states that this convergence is between Washington and Tehran at the expense of its interests. Under the US retreat from the Middle East in order to reproduce its strategic role by focusing on the Asia-Pacific region also it has noted, fear the Gulf states to be this rush the US towards Iran in terms of private American interests, without taking into account the concerns of legitimate Gulf states, and the omission entered in solid reformulation of the future map of the region process. And therefore Washington repeated with Tehran what I did with Moscow when they agreed on the chemical's settlement in Syria and Ohmmelta all elements and components of other Syrian crisis, Hence, the concern of the Gulf of that abbreviated Washington crisis with Tehran on the nuclear issue and the withdrawal from Afghanistan, and the neglect of the growing influence issues Iran in the Gulf and the delivery to do so without guarantees for the security of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) in order to restore Iran to the occupation of the previous position in the US strategy as US policeman in the Gulf, what would make a strategic change in the region and by extension, strengthen the position of Iran as having broad influence in the Middle East regional state which may make them impose conditions on the Gulf states about some of the outstanding issues - as a crisis UAE islands and Iranian support for the Shiites of Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait armed and trained to spy on Iran and the Gulf states. Especially since there are voices within the US political elites in harmony and in line with the restoration of the traditional role of Iran in the Persian Gulf (as a policeman of the Gulf). In a report prepared by each of the former national security adviser Zbgino Brzezinski, a former National Security Agency General William Odom under the title (reasonable path on Iran) "" A Sensible Path on Iran criticized the current US policy toward Iran, which depends «carrot and stick» as a failure and proposed to negotiate with Iran and returned to its traditional role, which was practiced before 1979 under the former Shah, the role of any "Gulf cop" with whom they named «realpolitik».
Strengthen the security system of political deterrence and to devote, and accelerate the transition to a Gulf Union of the most prominent stage Options to confront Iranian influence
However, there are a range of options available in front of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to deal with these transformations possible rapprochement between Tehran and Washington in order to preserve security and stability in the Gulf region and reflections, and takes into account the common interests of the GCC countries and can be displayed as follows:
- Strengthen the security system of political and devote deterrence through accelerating the transition to the Gulf Union; the weakness of some of the GCC defense and deterrence and poor coordination among them as well as the growing political, security and military challenges at the regional and international levels make the development experience of the Council towards a federal formula necessary option for all states Council.
- Diversification of political strategic alliances, gotta Gulf states strong incentives paid to build a new regional alliances with Russia, China and India to meet the security environment challenges in this period as well as to restore the balance with the United States in the event of any escalation threatens its vital interests in the region or threaten security and stability.
- Re-coordination with the Arab Spring countries, Achieving stability in the Spring countries such as Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Libya and Syria reflected on the stability of the Gulf states in particular and the region in general. Security is in the Gulf Arab security is linked to an organic link is an integral part of it and stretch it, the more security and stability in the region has increased as reflected positively on the economic security of the Gulf and its resources.

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