Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Clear signs of relaxation between Obama and Putin

Clear signs of relaxation between Obama and PutinGerman Economic News | Published: 00:58 clock 20:07:15 | 9 comments
The nuclear deal with Iran and the withdrawal of heavy weapons by the rebels in the eastern Ukraine are clear signs of a détente between Russia and the US. The EU now needs to quickly develop their own strategy. Otherwise, the Europeans will have to pay for the chaos in Ukraine.Show your XING contactsGeopolitics for Flexible: The rapprochement between Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama puts the EU under pressure. (Photo: AP)
Geopolitics for Flexible: The rapprochement between Vladimir Putin and Barack Obama puts the EU under pressure. (Photo: AP)
Between the US and Russia clear signs of relaxation can be seen. This makes initially an interview clear that US President Barack Obama with Thomas Friedman of the New York Times has done.
It says Obama, whose strategists Russia had called equally dangerous as the "Islamic State" a few weeks ago that the deal without the Russians was not possible. Obama praised the constructive role that the Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian negotiating team had played in almost friendly words. Obama had earlier still always spoken of the "aggression" of Russia in Ukraine, was now only talk of "differences" in the assessment of the situation in Ukraine.
Obama noted that he believed Russia was prepared to relent in Syria. The Moscow supports the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad since the beginning of the conflict. Obama said he believed that the Russians had realized that Assad (IS) losing more and more ground to the "Islamic State".
In fact, Obama is likely to have rather recognized that he is not without the Russians progresses in Syria. Originally Obama wanted to intervene militarily in Syria. His own military mutinied, however. As a result, Putin offered an opportunity to position itself as the guarantor of peace in the region. The Americans have contributed through their thoroughly inconsistent policies mean that the IS was in the Middle East to a factor. They had the rise of Islamist rebels tolerated even to overthrow Assad. The location is entirely procedural. The humanitarian disaster is enormous, millions of refugees have fled Syria. Many of them try to make their way to Europe. This development has meant that the EU is destabilized. On Monday meet the EU leaders to discuss again a division of 60,000 refugees in the EU. Until now, all attempts to refugees, many of whom come from Syria, met with opposition from several states.
The second sign of relaxation can be reported from the Ukraine: There, the rebels on Saturday begun without preconditions to withdraw heavy weapons from the front, as the TASS reported. In coordination with the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) weapons would be withdrawn for at least three kilometers from the front with a caliber of less than 100 millimeters also. The Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and John Kerry are trying to stabilize the situation in Ukraine. The prelude to had made a few months ago a visit by Kerry at Putin.
Apparently, the US and Russia have agreed not to escalate the situation in Ukraine continues. The reasons are different: In the US, the short-lived Fracking boom comes to an end. The delivery method is too expensive. In Ukraine still prevail chaotic conditions. Thus activists of right-wing extremist rights sector had gathered for a protest of the Presidential Administration in Kiev. The rights are mobilizing after President Poroshenko announced its disarmament. They now want a "meeting" on Tuesday to hold on the Maidan. Apparently Americans see that they support government in Kiev is not able to produce the order as promised.
The Kiev government is in fact primarily busy avert national bankruptcy. For US corporations to such conditions unacceptable in all expansionism. Therefore, Ukraine has first lost the energy policy significance for Washington.
Russia, in turn, has absolutely no reason to get involved in Ukraine. Moscow sees the financial disaster and is glad that the EU took over the payment of the gas bill for Ukraine.
The relaxation between Moscow and Washington would be shrill alarm bells in the capitals of the EU. After months of Putin-bashing, EU politicians see suddenly caught offside. Your countries have to pay an enormous price for the sanctions. In view of a possible new world economic crisis of the loss of the Russian sales market is devastating. The hope to do business quickly after Iran deal with Tehran could prove to be an illusion. Not even the lightning-trip Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel to Tehran will change little. Unlike Russia, the EU towards Iran entertain any contacts during the sanctions, but was stubborn followed the US-specifications. Meanwhile, Russia has caught up technologically and is now sure to be able to step up its exports to Iran and outside of the arms industry.
The greatest danger, however, threatens the EU financially in Ukraine: The EU have said as an echo of the US, the Russians that Ukraine should join the EU and all connections with Russia in the best hats. Ukraine is far away and not a financial policy focus for the United States. On the contrary, after the United States had urged the EU to sanctions, to respond now allergic to the chaotic politics of the EU. The United States had recently build massive pressure, so that the euro-zone and Greece some. The deal is far from in the bag: The US-dominated IMF wants to participate only when a haircut on a new loan program. German Chancellor Angela Merkel reiterated on Sunday in the ARD its position that a turn-in at the debt will only come when the new program is assessed positively after a first revision. But without the IMF should not come about the agreement.
Germany and France had announced in February, the German and French banks would build up the banking system in the Eastern Ukraine. This was nothing more to be heard in the recent past.
The reckless Association Agreement between the EU and Ukraine taking the European taxpayer in the obligation: As in Greece, the Americans will insist that the Europeans must keep Ukraine financially afloat. The Russians can always true carry out their threat, and stop the gas deliveries through Ukraine if the EU does not pay. A Plan B exists, as in Greece, no.
The cost of the "rescue" of the Ukraine will exceed those for Greece many times. The Ukrainian government, however, does not intend to submit any specifications from Berlin or Brussels. Thus followed the invitation of Bunde Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the Ukraine had to withdraw from the besieged place Schyrokyne, a pretty callous response from Kiev: Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said that so far only take his country steps for peace. He called for the withdrawal of Russian fighters and as well as the closure of the border to eastern neighbors. Only then can the conflict, in which already killed more than 6,000 people, be resolved peacefully.
Anyway: Even the Wall fund the EU taxpayers.
Thus they do not come much more to damage the EU would benefit the thaw between Washington and Moscow to pick up at least the sanctions as soon as possible. Because the dialogue between Russia and the United States should close the window again, the EU countries will pay a heavy price for their sustainably supposedly noble commitment to the integration of Ukraine. It is not satisfactory if the EU leaders - Angela Merkel included - permanently along the lines act "After me, the deluge!".

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